Home  Starting Out in Canada Move over, Wiarton Willie!
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Move over, Wiarton Willie! |
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On February 2 each year, millions of Canadians hang their hopes of an
early spring on the predictions of a furry little rodent. But while
Groundhog Day - immortalized by the Bill Murray film of the same name - gets all
the attention, researchers at the University of Northern British
Columbia (UNBC) are busy unearthing the keys to a more reliable system
of predicting the seasons.
For the past 10 years, Youmin Tang, UNBC's Canada Research Chair in Climate Prediction and Predictability, has been using mathematics to help scientists make accurate seasonal climate predictions.
"Some scientists study historical data and try to make statistical predictions, but this assumes that our future climate is completely related to what happened in the past," says Tang. "Not so. Our climate is made up of land, air, ice, oceans and eco-systems, and an accurate prediction must take all these different variables into account."
It's a complicated process. But with the help of years' worth of data gathered from satellites and weather stations, and with powerful computers to rapidly carry out lengthy calculations, Tang and his colleagues are slowly piecing together the giant jigsaw puzzle of climate prediction.
"We know that the ocean plays a key role in controlling and changing climate," says Tang. "So I'm looking at things like sea surface temperature and sea level height—data that have been collected by scientists around the world for years—to see how this might help us make more accurate predictions."
And while progress may be slow, Tang has already taken major steps. He discovered key elements that affect predictions related to the El Niño phenomenon—warm water currents in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that dramatically affect weather around the world. And he has used this discovery to develop a system for predicting when El Niño will occur.
Knowing whether next spring or summer will be hot and dry, or cool and soggy, could reap enormous benefits for Canadian farmers, foresters, fishermen, and even backyard gardeners.
And while Tang and his colleagues perfect the science of climate prediction, we still have the popular —but less accurate— forecasts of our furry little friend. - News Canada
• For more information about the Canada Research Chairs program, visit www.chairs.gc.ca.
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