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What does the future hold under Harper? |
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 | Harper kisses wife Laureen after his election victory.
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By Archie D'Cruz » Now that
Canada has a new government, the question many new and prospective
immigrants are asking is: "What does the future hold for us?"
It is not an easy one to answer, for two reasons. One, the Stephen
Harper-led Conservative Party has won a minority verdict, which means
it cannot implement its immigration policies without the support of at
least one other party. Two, in politics, there is never a guarantee on
when or if policies spelt out in an election platform will be
implemented.
Nevertheless, some predictions may be safe to make, and I am willing to stick my neck out on these.
First, you can expect to see Diane Ablonczy, interviewed by this site during the election campaign, to be named Canada's new immigration minister. Ablonczy spelled out the party's immigration policies in that interview, including a hint at a possible change in the points system.
Second, you should expect to see the landing fee, or the right of permanent residence fee, to use its proper term, slashed in half by the first budget. Reducing or eliminating the landing fee was the one policy on which all three major national parties (the Liberals and the NDP being the other two) were in broad agreement on, so it would be a huge surprise if this was not implemented at the earliest.
Don't hold your breath however on the second part of the Tory promise, which was cutting the fee to $100 over the term of the government. Historically, minority governments in Canada do not last the full five years, so this might be an issue to be debated in the next election, whenever that might be.
Third, adopted foreign-born children will likely be granted automatic citizenship once the adoption is finalized. This is one election pledge that is non-controversial and unlikely to face opposition from the other parties.
The other immigration policies that the Tories campaigned on will be harder to implement, though it may not be for want of trying.
There is likely to be broad support among the federal parties for the establishment of a new system for assessing the credentials of foreign-trained professionals. However this is an issue that needs to be worked out not only with the various provincial governments (licensing is a provincial issue), but also with various professional organizations.
It is by no means an easy fix and if the Conservatives manage to resolve that during their current term of office, it should be considered a major accomplishment.
Another issue for which there is cross-party support is cutting down immigration processing times. The current backlog, however, is so huge that even with major funding increases pledged by the Tories, processing times are unlikely to be dramatically reduced in the first year or two of the Harper government.
The Conservatives will also have a tough time trying to push through any change in the points system. The party has sought to move the selection of immigrants to a system based on Canada's actual employment needs, rather than the slant towards higher educational qualifications as at present. While the Tory plan has its merits, you can expect to see opposition being voiced about this being a move to bringing in a "labour class", much like the Chinese railway workers of more than a century ago.
Even if there were a change in the points system, it is highly unlikely that prospective immigrants who have already filed their applications will be affected. The last time there was a change, a twin-track system was put in place where applicants were assessed according to whichever points system they benefited more from.
Less is known about what the status of immigration by gay couples would be if the same-sex marriage issue is put to a vote. However the bets are on nothing changing on this front as Canada has permitted immigration by gay couples even before same-sex marriage became legal.
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